At times it is helpful to reflect on the past and evaluate what has changed. In 2022, we anticipated that inflation would peak, interest rates would rise globally, growth would moderate, and evaluating environmental, social, and governance factors in investment-decision making would increase. Well, it was quite a year; those things happened—and so much more that intensified those trends!
The events and the market performance of 2022 have shaped our views for the next year and beyond. We have entered a new paradigm of higher interest rates and higher trend inflation. It has yet to be seen whether the coordinated central bank tightening and higher trend inflation will result in a “soft or hard landing,” though our base case is for growth to slow globally and unemployment to rise from 2022 levels.