Creating forecasts in a world that regularly surprises remains humbling. March of 2020 brought COVID, while February of 2022 had Russia unexpectedly invading Ukraine. And March 2023 saw unanticipated—though perfectly logical—stressors on regional and local banks in...
COVID-19. Brexit. The war in Ukraine. The debt ceiling. Certain events grab our attention. Headlines and talking heads inform, investigate, and instill fear and uncertainty. Investors can’t help but wonder what is happening. What does this mean for me? Should I DO...
At times it is helpful to reflect on the past and evaluate what has changed. In 2022, we anticipated that inflation would peak, interest rates would rise globally, growth would moderate, and evaluating environmental, social, and governance factors in...
The first half of 2022 has been tumultuous, to say the least. As of June 20, we have seen the S&P 500 enter bear market territory, interest rates rise 150 bps and likely rising further, inflation at a 40-year high, slowing growth, a protracted war in Ukraine, and...
1Q 2022 saw war in Ukraine increase volatility and negatively impact most markets except for some commodities, inflation continue to increase, economic growth moderate, and short-term yields rise causing the yield curve to invert at times. We examine these themes in...
“Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated...It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper...is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in...
Financial regulations resulting from the Great Financial Crisis, including Basel III, The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform, and the Consumer Protection Act (2010) have attempted to ensure that banks are well-capitalized to avoid future taxpayer bailouts of banks. As a...
In the past six months, the economy has almost fully reopened, US initial jobless claims have dropped nearly to pre-COVID-19 crisis levels, the S&P 500 is up 15% (as of 6/30/21), consumer confidence is improving, and US financial conditions are strong. The extreme...
The Gates Family Foundation, a $500M private family foundation based in Denver, Colorado, commissioned Syntrinsic to conduct a landscape scan of the foundation community’s engagement in impact investing. This scan represents one of the tools that the Foundation’s...
While there are opportunities and challenges around us, we remain grounded in our approach to forecasting the investment markets with our 2021 long-term forecast and near-term sentiment.
“The Great Lockdown” as coined by the International Monetary Fund resulting from the health crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, has led to a significant loss in human life, extreme unemployment, financial instability, and a dramatic drop-in economic activity. This health crisis has caused a human crisis and an economic crisis.
Throughout 2019 we discussed broad based macroeconomic themes of slowing global growth, changes in trade policy, low inflation, political uncertainty, and US recession potential. Despite these concerns, global central bank accommodation, low unemployment, and a strong...