The more things change, the more they stay the same. In our last forecast, we discussed election uncertainty, sticky inflation, and geopolitical risk. Six months later, these issues are still with us. While we are not making across the board allocation changes or...
In this article in the Summer 2024 issue of the Journal of Impact and ESG Investing, Syntrinsic Head of Research Mike Sebastian discusses defining clear, realistic goals for investing taking into account environmental, social and governance factors. ...
The potential impact of the 2024 U.S. elections on financial markets is on investors’ minds. And rightly so, as elections certainly have implications regarding the country’s direction. According to Gallup, the top concern among voters in 2024 is the economy, including...
For the past decade, Syntrinsic has developed our annual Capital Markets Forecast to inform long-term strategic asset allocations and near-term tactical shifts. Our long-term return assumptions for each asset class are based on quantitative building blocks that are...
Creating forecasts in a world that regularly surprises remains humbling. March of 2020 brought COVID, while February of 2022 had Russia unexpectedly invading Ukraine. And March 2023 saw unanticipated—though perfectly logical—stressors on regional and local banks in...
COVID-19. Brexit. The war in Ukraine. The debt ceiling. Certain events grab our attention. Headlines and talking heads inform, investigate, and instill fear and uncertainty. Investors can’t help but wonder what is happening. What does this mean for me? Should I DO...
At times it is helpful to reflect on the past and evaluate what has changed. In 2022, we anticipated that inflation would peak, interest rates would rise globally, growth would moderate, and evaluating environmental, social, and governance factors in...
The first half of 2022 has been tumultuous, to say the least. As of June 20, we have seen the S&P 500 enter bear market territory, interest rates rise 150 bps and likely rising further, inflation at a 40-year high, slowing growth, a protracted war in Ukraine, and...
1Q 2022 saw war in Ukraine increase volatility and negatively impact most markets except for some commodities, inflation continue to increase, economic growth moderate, and short-term yields rise causing the yield curve to invert at times. We examine these themes in...
“Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated...It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper...is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in...
Financial regulations resulting from the Great Financial Crisis, including Basel III, The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform, and the Consumer Protection Act (2010) have attempted to ensure that banks are well-capitalized to avoid future taxpayer bailouts of banks. As a...
In the past six months, the economy has almost fully reopened, US initial jobless claims have dropped nearly to pre-COVID-19 crisis levels, the S&P 500 is up 15% (as of 6/30/21), consumer confidence is improving, and US financial conditions are strong. The extreme...